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Must-Read: Macro Advisors: GDP Tracking
Must-Read: Macro Advisors is currently at a 2.5%/year real GDP growth rate forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015, a 1.5%/year tracking estimate for the third quarter of 2015, 3.9% for the second...
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Must-Read: Ken Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication Breakdown
Must-Read: I guess I must be a foaming polemicist then :-)… Ken Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication Breakdown: “Personally, I would probably err on the side of waiting longer… …and accept the very high...
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Must-Read: Menzie Chinn: “Inflation Expectations Can Change Quickly…”
Must-Read: It is not clear to me that inflation expectations would undergo a “rapid and dramatic shift” even if we had a “drastic regime change”. Or rather, as Stan Fischer told me when we were...
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Must-read: Jeffrey Sparshott: “Where the Jobless Rate Is 2.3%, Here’s What...
Must-Read: Jeffrey Sparshott: Where the Jobless Rate Is 2.3%, Here’s What Happened to Wages: “In Lincoln, Neb., average hourly earnings were stagnant until the unemployment rate crossed below 2.5% in...
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Must-read: Jared Bernstein: “2015 Was Solid Year for Job Growth”
Must-Read: Jared Bernstein: 2015 Was Solid Year for Job Growth: “Payrolls were up 292,000 in December and the unemployment rate held steady at a low rate of 5%… …in another in a series of increasingly...
View ArticleMust-read: Larry Summers: “A World Stumped by Stubbornly Low Inflation”
Must-Read: Larry Summers: A World Stumped by Stubbornly Low Inflation: “[The 1970s taught us that] allowing not just a temporary increase in inflation but a shift to above-target inflation expectations...
View ArticleMust-read: Tim Duy: “Stanley Fischer and Lael Brainard Are Battling for...
Must-Read: Tim Duy: Stanley Fischer and Lael Brainard Are Battling for Yellen’s Soul: “Stanley Fischer sits on Chair Janet Yellen’s left shoulder, muttering: …we may well at present be seeing the first...
View ArticleMust-read: Dean Baker: “The Fed and the Quest to Raise Rates”
Must-Read: Dean Baker: The Fed and the Quest to Raise Rates: “The justification for raising rates is to prevent inflation from getting out of control… …but inflation has been running well below the...
View ArticleMust-read: Ken Rogoff: “The Fear Factor in Global Markets”
Must-Read: This, by the very-sharp Ken Rogoff, seems to me to be simply wrong. If “the supply side, not lack of demand, is the real constraint in advanced economies” then we would live in a world in...
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Watching as the Federal Reserve juggles priceless eggs in variable gravity…
Is it necessary to say that we hold Ben Bernanke, Mervyn King, Mark Carney, Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer, Lael Brainard, and company to the highest of high standards–demand from them constant triple...
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Must-read: Narayana Kocherlakota: “Information in Inflation Breakevens about...
Must-Read: Whenever I look at a graph like this, I think: “Doesn’t this graph tell me that the last two years were the wrong time to give up sniffing glue the zero interest-rate policy”? Anyone?...
View ArticleMust-read: Noah Smith: Post of the Day: Narayana Kocherlakota
Must-Read: Noah Smith: Post of the Day: Your must-read is Kocherlakota on higher inflation targets: https://t.co/t03iy4REJw — Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) May 3, 2016 The post Must-read: Noah Smith: Post...
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I Continue to Fail to Understand Why the Federal Reserve’s Read of Optimal...
Does you think this looks like an economy where inflation is on an upward trend and interest rates are too low for macroeconomic balance? Mohamed El-Erian says, accurately, that the Federal Reserve is...
View ArticleMust-read: Ryan Avent: “The Fed Ruins Summer: America’s Central Bank Picks a...
Must-Read: And agreement on my read of the Federal Reserve from the very sharp Ryan Avent. Nice to know that I am not crazy, or not that crazy… Ryan Avent: The Fed Ruins Summer: America’s Central Bank...
View ArticleMonetary Policy 201
This from Paul Volcker strikes me as substantially wrong: Paul Volcker and Cardiff Garcia: AlphaChatterbox Long Chat: [My] first economics course… at Harvard… Arthur Smithies…. Session after session he...
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Must-Read: Nick Bunker: What’s the deal with U.S. wage growth?
Must-Read: Suppose you put someone in cryogenic sleep a decade ago, woke them up today, showed them this graph: and said: “The U.S. Federal Reserve still has the same 2%/year inflation target it had in...
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Must-Read: Narayana Kocherlakota: There Goes the Fed’s Credibility
Must-Read: By now we can no longer understand the Federal Reserve Chair as needing to maintain harmony on a committee that has on it many regional reserve bank presidents who have failed to process the...
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Must-Read: Steve Goldstein: Fed’s Lael Brainard Calls for ‘Waiting’ as Labor...
Must-Read: If people on the FOMC had known late last November that the first half of 2016 would be as bad as it is shaping up to be–a GDP growth rate that looks to be 1.7%/year rather than 2.4%/year,...
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Must-Read: Ben Eisen: Newest Inflation Expectations Likely to Trouble the Fed
Must-Read: Ben Eisen: Newest Inflation Expectations Likely to Trouble the Fed: “The Federal Reserve probably won’t like the latest data out of the University of Michigan on Friday… …inflation...
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Must-Read: Paul Krugman: A Question For the Fed
Must-Read: As I was just saying yesterday: Take the rate of profit–typically 6% to 7% per year–on the operating companies that make up the stock market. Subtract the risk premium–typically 4%. Add on...
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